US Push to Pressure Iran Revives Interest in Trans-Caspian Pipeline
Turkmenistan has renewed its interest in a trans-Caspian gas pipeline following Washington's recent decision to block Iraq from importing Turkmen gas through a swap arrangement with Iran. While the move complicates Baghdad’s efforts to address its energy shortages, it may also reopen discussions on a direct route that would deliver Turkmen gas to Europe.
Washington’s Sanctions Move
The decision was part of the United States’ broader campaign to intensify sanctions on Tehran. It was not deliberately aimed at Baghdad or Ashgabat, but both nations are feeling its effects.
“The decision by Washington to block Iraq from importing gas from Turkmenistan via a swap deal with Iran may prove problematic for Baghdad, but it could reignite interest in building a trans-Caspian pipeline that enables Turkmen gas to flow to Europe.”
Energy Challenges in Iraq
Iraq continues to face severe power deficits. Its temporary plan to import gas from Turkmenistan through Iran provided short-term relief while it seeks to develop its largely untapped domestic gas reserves. Many of these reserves lie in territories not fully controlled by Baghdad, meaning years may pass before they are operational.
Impact on Turkmenistan
The consequences for Turkmenistan appear manageable. The 5 billion cubic meters of gas Iraq intended to import annually is small compared to the roughly 34 billion cubic meters Turkmenistan currently exports to China. However, the U.S. sanctions decision could prompt Ashgabat to reconsider its long-term export strategies.
Stalled Deal with Turkey
A separate Turkmen gas arrangement involving deliveries to Turkey via Iran now also seems suspended. This deal was seen as an important milestone in demonstrating Turkmenistan’s reliability to Western investors, as it would have initially allowed Turkey to receive up to 1 billion cubic meters of gas per year.
Author’s Summary
Washington’s sanctions on Iran have upended regional gas trade plans, complicating Iraq’s energy imports yet offering Turkmenistan renewed incentive to pursue a trans-Caspian pipeline to Europe.