After an extraordinary spring run, Sinners entered the Oscars season as an early favorite for Best Picture. However, recent trends have raised concerns about its chances.
The film began the year as a remarkable achievement. The studio placed a significant bet on Ryan Coogler and his vision, approving a budget exceeding $90 million for an original horror movie. Additionally, they agreed to revert rights back to Coogler after 25 years, a rare move for a major studio.
Initially, there was national skepticism about the film's profitability in today’s market. Despite that, it became a domestic box office phenomenon, grossing $278 million and reaching $366 million worldwide. Critics and audiences alike praised it enthusiastically.
Many viewers saw it multiple times, and Coogler fueled enthusiasm for its projection format, reminiscent of the excitement sparked by Oppenheimer. It was one of the few films that truly captured the cultural spotlight in recent times.
The expectation was that Sinners would sustain momentum from its April release through the Academy Awards, firmly standing as the movie of the year. Yet, as the awards race develops, the outlook appears uncertain.
Despite early-year releases facing challenges during awards campaigns, some films have succeeded. Sinners needs to replicate the success of Everything Everywhere All At Once, another original film that deeply resonated with audiences.
"It's hard to keep up an Oscars campaign when a movie releases so early in the year, but it's certainly not unheard of."
Author's summary: Despite strong initial success and cultural impact, Sinners faces an uphill battle in maintaining momentum for the Oscars due to its early release and shifting awards dynamics.