Beijing uses rare-earth export controls as a strategic lever in its rivalry with Washington. By imposing licensing requirements on rare-earth exports, the Xi administration aimed to unsettle the Trump administration and gain leverage in trade negotiations.
In March 2025, Beijing targeted growth around 5% and prioritized a comprehensive expansion of domestic demand. However, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that third-quarter GDP rose 4.8% year-on-year (down from 5.2% in Q2), with nominal growth easing to 3.7% (3.9% in Q2). Structural factors—declining population, weak social safety nets, a stagnant property market, and persistent income inequality—help explain these headwinds.
Official messaging, though, remained predominantly positive. During the October National Day holidays, per-capita consumption fell by 0.6% year over year, yet Xinhua highlighted that 888 million domestic travelers spent 809 billion yuan, presenting the outcome as evidence that stimulus policies had “unlocked new experiential consumption.” This tone aligns with the CCP’s ongoing directive since the December 2023 Central Economic Work Conference to “strengthen economic publicity and opinion guidance, and advocate the bright prospects of China’s economy.”
Around the same period, the Ministry of State Security warned against “defamation” of the Chinese economy, foreshadowing possible penalties.
“defamation” of the Chinese economy
Author’s summary: China pursues a dual track of assertive external leverage through controls and cautious internal messaging to sustain growth, while facing structural headwinds that limit immediate gains.
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