Who’s Really Most Vulnerable to Climate Change? SIDS, LDCs, and Adaptation Finance
As global focus intensifies on the "adaptation COP," questions arise about those "particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change." But who exactly are these groups?
Vulnerability Indices and Their Findings
A recent working paper reveals that existing vulnerability indices yield very different answers. Climate agreements often emphasize least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states (SIDS).
Small Island Developing States (SIDS)
SIDS gain significant attention due to their clear exposure to rising sea levels and tropical cyclones, exemplified by recent events like Hurricane Melissa. However, the analysis indicates that on average, SIDS rank in the lower half of vulnerability indices.
Least Developed Countries (LDCs)
Contrary to popular focus, LDCs generally rank as more vulnerable across most indices compared to SIDS, suggesting a need to reassess priorities.
Adaptation Finance Allocation
- Adaptation finance distribution is highly uneven, ranging from under $1 to over $2,400 per person annually.
- SIDS receive the highest per capita funding by far.
While SIDS require unique forms of assistance, greater emphasis on LDCs is essential for equitable adaptation financing. Additionally, differentiated rules are needed for loss and damage support.
Assessment Tools Used
The paper evaluates five prominent indices assessing climate vulnerability:
- ND-GAIN
- World Resources Institute (WRI)
- INFORM CC
- Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI)
- Pacific Vulnerability Climate Change Index (PVCCI)
Each index incorporates dozens of indicators and was compared at three levels: overall risk, vulnerability, and exposure.
"SIDS tend to attract a lot of attention because of their obvious vulnerability to rising sea levels and tropical cyclones. Hurricane Melissa is just the latest reminder of that."
"On average, SIDS rank in the bottom half of the indices on vulnerability, and LDCs appear to be the more vulnerable group."
"The allocation of adaptation finance is extremely unequal, ranging from less than $1 to over $2400 per person per year, with SIDS attracting by far the most per capita."
Author's summary: While SIDS receive more adaptation finance per capita due to their exposed geography, least developed countries face greater overall vulnerability and need increased attention in climate adaptation funding.