Decomposing Life Expectancy Changes in Spain During and After COVID-19
Background
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a significant reduction in life expectancy (LE) at birth in Western European countries in 2020, which was only restored by 2023. Despite being heavily affected by the pandemic, Spain maintains the highest LE in the European Union. This study aims to analyze the changes in LE in Spain from 2019 to 2023 by examining age-specific and cause-of-death-specific contributions, and to compare these changes to the pre-pandemic period from 2010 to 2019.
Methods
Data on life expectancy and mortality rates by age and main cause of death were sourced from the Spanish National Institute for Statistics (INE) for the years 2010, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. The Arriaga decomposition method was used to estimate age-specific contributions to changes in LE. These contributions were then proportionally assigned to each major cause of death.
Results
- Age groups over 20 years had a negative impact on LE in 2020 but mostly contributed positively from 2021 onwards.
- Surprisingly, age groups most affected in 2020 showed an overall positive contribution to LE changes over the 2019–2023 period.
- Conversely, those under 45 years old continued to have negative contributions to LE.
- Infectious diseases were the primary cause of the sharp LE decline in 2020, reducing LE by 1.33 years for the total population.
- The impact was greater in men (−1.43 years) compared to women (−1.16 years).
"Infectious diseases were the main contributor to the sharp drop in life expectancy in 2020, accounting for −1.33 years in the total population, with a more severe impact in men (−1.43 years) than in women (−1.16 years)."
Author's Summary
Spain's life expectancy drop during COVID-19 was mainly due to infectious diseases, with older age groups recovering positively post-2020, while younger groups remain adversely affected.